Post Season Preview

It’s hard to believe we’re into our final stretch of the XC season.  Due to several people asking, here is a rundown of the final portion of the season.  Sorry, it’s very lengthy, but this is not required reading (except for important info that is highlighted; the rest is just blather:-))  So for those of you who are curious about the competitive side of our post season, our prospects as a team, and how things operate–and if you have 10 minutes to burn–the info below may be interesting.

 

As you know, this past weekend wrapped up the invitational portion of our schedule.  After this weekend’s bye, it’s all business … SFL Finals (11/1), Sub-sections (11/9), Section Championships (11/16), and hopefully State (varsity).  Please remember these post-season meets are “non-negotiable”, meaning they take precedent over anything non-emergency.  Any soccer games, birthday parties, field trips, family dinners, etc., will not be granted approval for skipping these meets.  Please ask for clarification if you have any questions about this commitment.

 

Finals will be on Friday, Nov. 1st (a non-school day, and the day after Halloween) at SV Park, early afternoon.  We will expect all athletes to be there by 2pm, and to remain for a team meeting at the team tents following the final race, probably around 5:30/5:45.  After clean-up, we should all be dismissed by 6pm.

 

The format will be the same as the first league meet at Willow Hills … just frosh soph and varsity, no JV.  Last year, Whitney claimed four league titles, but that will be more difficult to do this year.  Even though each of our squads is faster than last year, the SFL is extremely tough in 2019.  For example, our frosh-soph boys have won multiple invitationals this season, but are sitting 3rd in league right now, due to the dominance of this league.  Both girls’ squads are in a similar predicament.  Only our varsity guys are considered the top team going in.

 

The way the league scoring works is a point system.  Once regular cross country scoring is calculated to determine team place, each team gets one point for each team defeated at the first league meet.  But at league finals, it doubles, so each team gets 2 points for each team defeated.  This means that if a team finished 2nd at Willow Hills, or even 3rd, they can win it all by winning the finals event.

 

For frosh soph girls, our top 3 runners have been moved up to varsity, which depletes our frosh soph squad a bit.  At the first league meet, Granite Bay did not move anyone up, so their frosh soph girls dominated.  If they once again keep their top runners down at Finals, they will be tough to beat.  Those 4 girls did run in the varsity race at the Bronco Invitational, so we’ll see what they do at league.  Oak Ridge will likely move their faster frosh soph girls up, completing a dominant varsity team.  Folsom has a couple strong frosh soph girls, but haven’t had enough girls to score as a team (same with Oak Ridge, after moving up their runners to varsity).  Whitney has a reasonable shot at 2nd.

 

The frosh soph boys race figures to be very exciting as Oak Ridge, Folsom, and Whitney had a good battle in September.  We finished 3rd at the first league meet, so our goal will be to overcome that gap.  If the point tally sums to a draw, the result at SFL Finals is the tie-breaker; this means that even though we settled for 3rd in September, we can still win a championship if we place 1st at league finals.  That’s going to be very difficult, as three of the best frosh-soph boys teams in the entire section just happen to all be in the SFL, with one of them being Oak Ridge, clearly the favorite to win the league title. .

 

Varsity girls … we ran really well at Willow Hills against the rest of the league.  Oak Ridge’s top runners did not run to full potential that day, and both Oak Ridge and Del Oro did not field their fastest 5 at that meet.  So even though we won the first meet, we’re not favorites to win Nov 1st, and could even slip to 3rd with Del Oro at full strength.  Oak Ridge is clearly the strongest team, with 3 girls well under 19 minutes, plus two talented underclass girls who have risen quickly and are right behind their leaders.  Late season rankings have Oak Ridge as #1 in D1; they have a front 3 in the 18’s (minutes) and their 4th and 5th runners aren’t far behind.  We have gotten faster, in fact surpassing our state team of 2018.  But half of the SFL girls varsity teams are state meet caliber.  Whitney has a good chance at 2nd; things will have to go really well in our favor for our varsity girls to defend their league title.

 

Whitney’s varsity boys are favored to win, but this is the SFL, and nothing is easy.  Rocklin is always fast, strong and well-prepared.  Del Oro lost some key seniors to graduation, but they, Oak Ridge, Folsom, and Granite Bay have young talent that each of these programs are developing well.  Whether these younger teams are ready to challenge Whitney’s strong upper class remains to be seen.  But our chances of defending our league title are good, especially if our runners run as expected.

 

 

 

Huge meet!  Every XC program and runner in the entire Sac-Joaquin Section (including everyone on our team) competes in one of about 25 races throughout the day.  It’s about a two-hour drive, so plan on an early morning departure and a full Saturday.  Frosh boys will need to be there by 8:15am, soph boys by 8:45am, and every one else by 9:00 am.  This meet is primarily a qualifier for Section Championships.  We will field 7 squads:  varsity boys/girls, JV boys/girls, frosh boys, soph boys, frosh-soph girls.  For varsity only, the top 10 teams and top 10 individuals not on a team advance in each division (5 divisions, and we are D2).  The other 5 races, only the top 6 teams advance, and 10 individuals.  Our goal is to qualify 7 out of 7 teams for Section Finals.  This is very difficult to do; in fact it is common for no program to be able to achieve this, at least not in the large schools divisions (D1 and D2).  Last year, Whitney almost did it, advancing 6 teams out of 7, plus an individual.

 

Even if we advance the maximum number of runners at 49 (7 squads of 7 runners), Sub-Sections will be the final race of the season for many runners on our team, as we have 81 on the roster.  The coaching staff will be faced with the unenviable task of designating which of our runners will represent Whitney at Section Finals, as we are required to enter only 7 per race.

 

Please NOTE: 
When determining which runners will represent Whitney’s top 7 on an advancing team, we look at several factors, not just how each runner places at sub-sections.

 

Both of our varsity teams should advance.  Our JV boys and freshman boys appear to be strong enough as well.  Sophomore boys, frosh-soph girls, and JV girls will be tight.

Here is the meet schedule.  It is divided morning/afternoon by large schools and small schools.  All of our races (D2, large) are in the first half of the day.

 

 

 

Section Finals is much smaller than Sub-Sections in terms of numbers of teams and runners, but still big.  And, it is way bigger in terms of what’s at stake.  At Sub-Sections, some races could see 300 runners.  At Section Finals, with only the top 10 teams of 7 runners each, plus a handful of individuals, no race has more than 80 runners.  But those 80 runners–at least a good portion of them–are equally matched and therefore not so spread out, making for fairly condensed races.  Last year in 2018, our varsity boys came into this meet favored to win, and did, but not by much (5 points over always-powerful Rocklin).  Our girls entered the 2018 post-season outside the top 3 (ranked 5th/6th), but finished 2nd overall as section runner-ups to St. Francis.  The Camp Fire had postponed section finals a full week, until all races were canceled except varsity.  During that odd week we had to get creative and trained at 5:30 in the morning before the air quality got terrible.  Eventually, even the mornings were bad, so we hit the treadmills at Cal Fit, which the very generous manager allowed us to use free of charge for two days.  During it all, our girls stayed prepared physically, focused mentally, and rose up to race one of the greatest team performances in Whitney XC history to join our boys in earning a trip to California State Championships.

 

This season, our varsity boys team is expected to earn yet another trip to state.  Some folks (and several late season rankings) have Whitney as the D2 Section favorite once again, and to defend our section title.  But there are a few teams that are capable of winning it all.  Vacaville has a top 3 that can match or beat our top 3.  Plus, they have three fast-developing runners, closing that vulnerable gap between #3 and #4; this could neutralize our depth, which is one of our strengths.  Two years ago, we edged Vacaville (by 6 points) to barely claim the final berth to the state meet.  Rocklin is now D1, so they will be in a different race.  Vista Del Lago is a team to watch, as they have several rising runners and a tight-pack mentality in a very well-coached program.  Vista has a very solid group of guys in the mid-16:00’s for 5K, and with their improvement history, they will be very tough.  Oakmont has a similar group of mid-16:00 guys and look to be a top 3 team.  Bella Vista and Rio Americano will also be vying for a top 3 bid for state.

 

Our varsity girls find themselves in a similar position as last season:  sitting outside the top 3 going into the post-season.  The team time of our top 5 (one key measure of a team’s success) has surpassed last year’s state team that placed 2nd at Section Championships.  Our current front 7 has achieved the fastest team time in Whitney history, which includes 4 state teams.  And yet this year there are still 3 teams solidly ahead of us in D2, which at this point in the season is noticeably more competitive than D1 … St. Francis (almost invincible), Vista Del Lago (defending 2018 D3 state champions), and Rio Americano (dominant in the early 2019 season).  Sac Joaquin Section (SJS) D2 is exceedingly strong and deep this year.  Our girls team is training really well and will need an inspiring performance at Willow Hills to crack into the top 3 and qualify for the state meet.

 

Three years ago, four of our freshman boys were moved up to varsity which earned section runner-up and a berth to the state meet.

Two years ago, our freshman boys team beat Bella Vista by 4 points to win a section title.

Last year was set to be a rematch of those same boys as sophomores til the Camp Fire canceled all races at sections except varsity, so we’ll never know how that head to head rematch would have ended up.

But this year, we have another freshman boys squad in 2019 that could do really well at sections.  They are a team to watch in the post season.

 

Speaking of Bella Vista–always a top program–they have an incredible amount of depth, so their JV squad will be hard to beat.  But our JV boys are pretty deep too.  We go about 12 or 13 deep with guys who would normally be top 7 on a state qualifying team.  It will be difficult drawing the line at top 7 varsity, meaning Whitney will have some varsity top 7 caliber runners fielding our JV squad, so our JV team figures to be pretty competitive in the post season.  For the girls JV, St. Francis is once again the dominant force, but we have a shot at placing, as do our frosh soph girls and sophomore boys.

 

The race schedule has not yet been posted for Section Finals.

 

Well, if you made it to the bottom of this long preview, hopefully you feel informed 🙂

 

Feel free to ask questions.